Financial Report — 2026-07-10

+3.02%（反弹🟢）

比特币 (BTC-USD)

$64443.60

$57,747.77 - $126,198.07

TECHNICAL

BTC $64,443.60（+$1,890，+3.02%）—— 从昨日$62,065强力反弹至$64,443！日内区间$62,913-$64,432。CoinDesk头条：MACD翻多=技术面转好，BTC测试$64,400阻力位（周一未能突破的同一位置）。$60K-$70K区间已成为历史上第三大成交密集区(307天)，若有效突破打开上行至$67,250(6月15日高点)空间。

FUNDAMENTAL

BTC $64,443.60（+3.02%），从昨日暴跌$1,352强力反弹$1,890至$64,443！地缘危机缓和预期+技术面转好双重利好。利空：(1) 伊朗局势仍不确定，原油虽回落至$72.73但仍高于危机前 (2) Spot BTC基金周四净流出$95M=机构短期获利了结。利好：(1) MACD翻多=可靠动量指标确认反弹趋势 (2) Japan'invest locally'计划->可能刺激对BTC等资产的本地需求 (3) Metaplanet探索比特币背书的数字信贷产品->日本加密市场深化 (4) 日本央行收益率仍低+Fed降息预期不变

SENTIMENT & NEWS

Japan's 'invest locally' plan likely to spur demand for assets like bitcoin, gold — day-ahead look July 10

POSITIVE

Crypto defies equity weakness as altcoin optimism builds into the weekend — BTC hit $64,400 retesting Monday's level, break higher opens path to June 15 peak of $67,250

POSITIVE

Bitcoin gets a green light from reliable momentum gauge: smoother long-term MACD just flipped bullish

POSITIVE

Metaplanet explores bringing bitcoin-backed digital credit to Japan with JPYC and Progmat

POSITIVE

Live markets: Bitcoin tops $64,000 as selling pressure on Coinbase eases — spot BTC funds lost ~$95M Thursday

NEUTRAL

Recommendation

增持 🟢 — 技术面转好，伊朗局势缓和预期增强

BTC $64,443.60（+3.02%），从昨日$62,065强力反弹$1,890至$64,443！MACD翻多=可靠动量指标确认上涨趋势。伊朗局势缓和预期->原油回落至$72.73(-0.9%)=通胀预期降温=Fed降息路径重获支持。关键阻力$64,400（今日价格）和$67,250(6月15日高点)。建议：（1）MACD转多+地缘缓和->可逢低增持；（2）若突破$67,250打开上行空间至$70K+；（3）注意Spot BTC基金周四净流出$95M=短期获利了结压力

-0.71%（企稳🟡）

华夏有色金属ETF联接C / 招行黄金活期

$4111.30

$3,998 - $4,363（年内高点）

TECHNICAL

黄金 $4,111.30（-$29，-0.71%）。从昨日$4,079反弹至$4,111，日内区间$4,083-$4,118。原油从$73.63回落至$72.73(-0.9%)->中东紧张局势略有缓和。VIX降至15.93（昨日高达17.52）->恐慌情绪明显降温。MACD翻多=风险偏好回升利好传统资产。

FUNDAMENTAL

黄金$4,111.30（-0.71%），从昨日暴跌$79至$4,079反弹约$32至$4,111！地缘危机缓和预期+原油回落->避险需求下降但央行购金逻辑不变。VIX降至15.93=恐慌大幅降温->风险偏好回升。日本'invest locally'计划可能刺激对黄金等实物资产的需求。短期：金价有望企稳回升至$4,100-$4,200区间；中长期：Fed降息预期+央行购金+去美元化三重逻辑不变，回调仍是长期布局机会。有色金属ETF间接受益于工业金属需求恢复。

SENTIMENT & NEWS

Japan's 'invest locally' plan likely to spur demand for assets like bitcoin, gold — Japanese capital回流推动国内资产需求

POSITIVE

Gold $-0.71% at $4,111.30 — stabilization after yesterday's crash suggests $4,100 support holding

NEUTRAL

Recommendation

持有 🟢 — 企稳迹象明显，日本需求预期增加中长期利好

黄金$4,111.30（-0.71%），从昨日$4,079反弹至$4,111！$4,100支撑有效确认。VIX回落至15.93=恐慌降温->风险偏好回升。日本'invest locally'计划->可能刺激对黄金等实物资产需求。建议：（1）守住$4,100暂持；（2）若突破$4,150可加仓；（3）中线目标取决于Fed是否继续鸽派，央行购金逻辑不变

+0.81%（修复🟢）

招商普盛全球配置QDII人民币A

$7543.64

6,201.59 - 7,620.90

TECHNICAL

标普500收盘7,543.64（+0.81%）—— 从昨日$7,482修复至$7,543！半导体全面反弹：AMD +5.67%/MU +4.47%（昨日分别-6.51%/-4.64%），AVGO +3.20%，AMAT +3.18%。AAPL +0.90%逆势上涨，NVDA -0.70%微跌。VIX从17.52回落至15.93=恐慌大幅降温。

FUNDAMENTAL

S&P收盘7,543.64（+0.81%），伊朗停火缓和预期推动全面反弹！半导体板块昨日暴跌后今日全面修复：AMD +5.67%/MU +4.47%，AVGO +3.20%，AMAT +3.18%->科技股恐慌消退。AAPL +0.90%逆势上涨，NVDA -0.70%微跌=半导体分化但整体回暖。VIX从17.52(昨日)回落至15.93=恐慌情绪大幅降温。原油从$73.63回落至$72.73(-0.9%)->中东紧张局势略有缓和。QDII配置价值：(1) 伊朗危机缓解但地缘风险溢价仍在 (2) VIX低位=市场正常化进行中 (3) 半导体反弹确认AI叙事未被破坏

SENTIMENT & NEWS

Live markets: Bitcoin tops $64,000 as selling pressure on Coinbase eases — broad market recovery from Iran selloff

POSITIVE

Crypto defies equity weakness as altcoin optimism builds into the weekend — risk appetite returning to traditional markets too

POSITIVE

Japan's 'invest locally' plan likely to spur demand for assets like bitcoin, gold — potential spillover to global markets

POSITIVE

Recommendation

增持 🟢 — 全面修复，伊朗危机缓和预期增强

S&P收盘7,543.64（+0.81%），从昨日$7,482大幅反弹至$7,543！伊朗停火缓和预期->全面修复。半导体板块昨日暴跌后今日全面反弹：AMD +5.67%/MU +4.47%，AVGO +3.20%->恐慌消退确认。VIX从17.52回落至15.93=恐慌大幅降温。原油$72.73(-0.9%)回落->通胀压力缓解。建议：（1）伊朗局势继续缓和->可逢低增持；（2）关注$7,620(52周高点)阻力位；（3）若中东局势再次恶化需控制仓位